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GLOBAL OIL CONSPIRACY

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                  “…and when Iraq switched its currency to Euro, American analysts fell about laughing; Iraq had just made a mistake that was going to beggar the nation. But two years on, alarm bells were sounding; the euro was rising against the dollar and then…”

      Oil has always been a major subject of interest to mankind since its maiden discovery. The importance of oil to the modern world is imitable, one-off in character and improbably far-reaching in scope. It is a singularly autonomous variable in the world's economy and is as potent & influential as federal reserve decisions, the euro-dollar exchange rates, conditions in the global stock market indexes, national progress rates and the level of inflation throughout the world. In the modern era,  oil has shaded all the major mechanisms and it would be a herculean task for anyone, to find a substance or phenomena in world's history, that has held a comparable position.


Global Strategic Routes of Oil

Before we poke into some of the ugliest oil related conspiracies, let us analyze the strategic oil routes of our planet. Believe it or not, but these if disturbed by any means, may very well result into the breaking of  World War Three!

Countries situated at the Persian Gulf have nearly two-third of all the crude oil reserves. The Persian Gulf, also known as the Arabian Gulf, is a 600-mile-long body of water which separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula. This is also one of the most strategic waterways in the world due to its importance in oil transportation. At its narrowest point (the Strait of Hormuz), which is the only sea passage to the petroleum exporting Persian Gulf countries, 40% of the world’s oil is supplied across the globe. United States receives about 12% of its oil, Western Europe about 25% and Japan over 66% of its oil via this route. In addition, 15% of the world's commerce is routed through Hormuz. This vital water way apart from helping Gulf counties earn a large surplus of income, also give some countries a clear vantage. Iran, for instance, responds back to U.S. deadly military threats by performing navy exercises at Hormuz. All that this critical bottle neck point requires to get chocked up, is a few ships drowned at its heart. On 29th June 2008, the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, said that if Iran were attacked by Israel or the United States, it would seal off the Strait of Hormuz, to wreak havoc in oil markets. In response, U.S. Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, warned that such an action by Iran would be considered an act of war. The conditions at this strait have gone so strained, that on 3rd July 1988, 290 people were mercilessly killed when an Iran Air Airbus A 300 passenger plan was shot down over the strait by United States Navy guided missile cruiser.  

The Strait of Malacca, another strategic oil route, is a narrow 805 km (500 miles) stretch of water between the Malay Peninsula (Peninsular Malaysia) and the Indonesian island of Sumatra and is one of the most important shipping lanes of the world. About a quarter of all oil carried by sea passes through this strait. Oil being transported from the Strait of Malacca is mainly from Persian Gulf suppliers to the Asian markets such as China, Japan, and South Korea.

In the same way, the Strait of Gibraltar, is yet another narrow strait that connects the Atlantic Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea and separates Spain in Europe from Morocco in Africa. 

US Dollar Vs Euro Warfare and the Role of OPEC

Under OPEC agreement, all oil has to be traded in US dollars and has been traded so since 1971 (after the dropping of the gold standard). This makes US dollar the de facto major international trading currency. Obviously, if other nations have to hoard dollars to buy oil, they may want to use that hoard for other tradings too. This actuality gives America an enormous trading advantage and helps make it the dominant economy in the world.  As an economic bloc, the European Union is the only challenger to USA's economic position, and has created 'Euro' to challenge the dollar in international markets. However, the EU is not yet united behind Euro — there is a lot of jingoistic national politics involved. EU dept crisis is making the conditions even worst — and in any case, as long as nations throughout the world  have to hoard dollars to buy oil, Euro can make very limited inroads into dollar's dominated market.

Invasion of Iraq- A Desperate Attempt to Maintain Dollar's Supremacy

In 2000, Iraq, with the world's second largest oil reserves, switched to trading its oil in Euros. At this the American analysts fell about laughing as they thought that Iraq had just made a mistake that was going to beggar its nation. But just two years later, alarm bells were sounding; the euro was rising against the dollar, Iraq had given itself a huge economic free kick by switching and consequently Iraq had to be repented for her act.

U.S. decided that an unprovoked "shock and awe" attack had to be performed. This  was to serve several economic purposes: (1) Safeguard the U.S. economy by recommissioning Iraqi oil in U.S. dollars instead of
the Euro and to try to lock the world back into dollar oil trading so that U.S. continues to be the dominant world power- both militarily and economically (2) Send a clear message to other oil producers, as to what will happen to them if they abandon the dollar matrix (3) Place the second largest oil reserves under direct U.S. control (4) Create a subject state where the U.S. can maintain a huge force to dominate the Middle East and its oil (5) Create a severe setback to the European Union and its Euro- the only trading block and currency strong enough to attack U.S. dominance through trade.


But of course, the United States had to present a valid excuse in front of the world. It availed the conditions caused by the controversial 9/11 and furthermore, its intelligence generated a report proclaiming that Saddam Hussain had weapons of mass destruction which might have been hidden under Iraq’s soil and they must have had supported Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind of 9/11 in the destruction of twin towers. So, United States invaded Iraq calling it ‘War against terrorism’, cleverly veiling its intention of  maintaining the dominion of it’s currency, worldwide. 

This was just one, among various games played by U.S. to retain dollar's Supremacy. Many countries were forcibly pushed into similar traps. Almost all of U.S 'generous' aid to the under developed world were (and still are) charted with hectic terms and conditions that have to be abided by at any cost. The major one of these conditions being  the use of dollar as a trade currency & the use of oil as a major source of energy.

Later on, when Iran too started thinking about purchasing its oil in Euros, United States called it ‘Axis of evil’ and started having a bull’s eye on her every move. Iran’s nuclear power program has given States a ray of hope to deteriorate it’s old target and for this purpose, it has been drawing world's attention to Iran’s nuclear program and has been searching for hints and stitching cock & bull stories against her. The U.S. also wants to create a new oil cartel in the Middle East and Africa, so as  to replace OPEC. For this purpose, it is now dangling the "most generous aid"  to Nigeria, in an attempt to make it withdraw from OPEC. 

Invasion of Afghanistan- A Clever Plot to Control Central Asia's Gas Traverse Route

Further on, to break up OPEC and control the world's oil supply, it is also important to control the Central Asiatic oil producing countries, specially the ones through which oil pipelines traverse. To accomplish this, the first attack and occupation was carried on in Afghanistan in October 2001. Afghanistan itself being a gas producing country, is a land through which Central Asian and the Caspian Sea oil and gas is being planned to be piped to several energy-starved countries, including India. Afghanistan also provided an alternative to previously existing Russian pipelines. Simultaneously, U.S. acquired over 19 military bases in the Central Asian countries of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan situated in the Caspian Basin; all of which are potential oil producers. After the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, U.S. controlled the natural resources & strategic bases in both of these countries. Once again Iraq's oil began to be traded in U.S. dollars. 

Hence conclusively, Euro or any other currency will only be able to win over dollar, if the OPEC countries unanimously switch from dollar.

Role of Petroleum Cartel
This is the very petroleum cartel that is also hindering the growth of other resources of energy. With the advent of alternative energy resource era U.S. dollar suffer, and so will the private oil business enterprise.

For example Pakistan, often termed as a ‘energy-starved country’, has been gifted with the 5th largest coal reserves in the world. These reserves of coal worth US $25 trillion which can not only fulfill the electricity requirements of the country for the next 100 years, but can also save almost four billion dollars in staggering oil import bill. Pakistan receives 1220 billion Rupees from its taxation system, while this project requires only a 420 Billion Rupees worth of initial investment, which can help Pakistan attain self-sufficiency in energy.

Chinese and other companies have not only carried out surveys and feasibilities of this project, but have also been offering 100 percent investment in last 7 to 8 years. The “Petroleum Companies Cartel” in Pakistan has acquired a very strong position and has always discouraged the use of any other resources of energy other than oil (except for imported oil) in a very systematic way. This lobby is a major beneficiary of increasing oil bill, which has exceeded limit of 15 billion dollar!

Final Word

The lust for finding new reserves of oil and the bloody coups to conquer the already existing ones, has led this fuel's importance to reach the achiest position. It is the only substance in the world via which any super power’s sustainability and dominance can be challenged. The Euro Vs Dollar warfare, knocking out the gold from the queue, disturbance in oil prices worldwide and the deadly conflicts among countries for oil shows up how oil has always been a part of the blood, bread and butter of the world and how it has become a cause of several ugliest controversies. 




                                                                                         
                                                                                   WRITTEN BY: MUHAMMAD SAAD IQBAL.

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EMERGING NEW WORLDS OF OIL

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The hottest topic in the energy debate these days is the replacement of the fossil fuels by alternate energysources. The question “Will fossil fuels ever be replaced by renewable energy sources?” has transformed with time to “Can fossil fuels still prevent the advent of the renewable energy sources?” 

According to US EIA Energy Statistics 2007, Fossil fuels account for 86.4% of the total world energy consumption whereas non-fossil fuels grab the space for only 13.6%. The comparison used to be perceived as a merely ridiculous myth back in the time as renewable energy sources – such as solar, bio-fuels, wind, tidal seemed laughably inadequate as an alternative to fossil fuels. However, as the clock ticked its minutes away, the energy requirements kept increasing at a pace of 2.3% per year! The contrast now has raised serious concerns in the energy world. The renewable(s) are becoming cheaper and efficient in different ways and that too in a climate, where fossil fuels are becoming increasingly expensive and hazardous. However, with the existing technology at the perspective, fossil fuels are the very commodities that present the greatest opportunities in meeting energy demands, within financial constraints.

So, if you think that world has run out of oil, then THINK AGAIN! This globe has much more oil to offer than what mathematicians can calculate or what speculators can predict. Nature has hidden the treasure in abundance located at different parts of the world. A report by World Oil Outlook states that fossil fuels will continue to remain the satisfiers of more than 80% of our energy demands till 2030, in which coal is expected to maintain its significance as the second most important energy source. The need to discover new oil frontiers and to work towards the extraction of unconventional hydrocarbon resources has to get fulfilled for the sake of human survival on this planet. As the oil fields in Middle East & other oil rich regions obtain maturity, new oil & gas bearing regions are ready to take their positions. Delineations of some of the new oil worlds is as follows:
A F R I C A
                      
A very promising zone is the West African part of the globe. The four geologic provinces of this region which include: The Senegal, The Gulf of Guinea, The Niger Delta and The West Central Coast, have been researched upon by the United States Geologic Survey (USGS) World Assessment Team 2000. The provinces lie upon the North-West and West-Central African coast extending offshore to a water depth of 2.9 miles. Geologically, the Senegal Basin is of Middle Jurassic to Holocene Epoch age whereas the Gulf of Guinea is characterized by the tectonic transformations. More than 30,000 ft of sediments pertain under the Niger Delta and lastly, the West-Central Coastal occupies the Aptian Salt Basin instigated by both rift and sag tectonics. The assessment gave forward the notion that these areas encompass 71.5 billion barrels of oil, 235.2 trillion cubic feet of gas and 10.2 billion barrels of Natural Gas Liquids.
B R A Z I L       
The world’s fifth largest country, Brazil, has the potential to become one of the world’s largest producers of oil if it can tap its reserves deep under the South Atlantic. It possesses the biggest offshore oil reserves in the pre-salt area off its South-East Coast. The consecutive pre-salt discoveries in Brazil have made it the rising star of the Western Hemisphere for the Oil and Gas industry.


The coast of Rio de Janerio is 290 km long. High overhead the Coast, Gas is flaring whereas deep under the coast, there is enough oil to fill 330,000 barrels. The fossilized oceans in Brazil strike more than 6.5 billion barrels worth in the Lula Field alone. In 2007, State-run oil company Petrobars had found between 5 billion to 8 billion barrels of Light oil and Gas in the Tupi field which is 160 miles off the coast of Rio de Janerio. This discovery of Tupi is the World’s greatest oil field and the largest ever in the deep waters. This field is speculated to ramp up to 1 million barrels a day of production in 2020. Petrobars has assigned Brazil as the New Oil Superpower. The South American country, in future, is believed to play the roles of Oil Majors, Oil service providers and beyond.  Amidst the unrest in the Middle East, President Obama has already pledged that United States will be a major customer of the Brazilian Oil in the coming years. These monstrous reserves are certainly more than just a jackpot for the country which ranks 69th out of 178 countries in Transparency International’s annual ranking of perceived corruption. The country must nip its corruption in the bud and cash itself on the moment to lead not only in extraction of the reserves and export of raw materials but also in technology.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA     
Furthermore, Oil Shale reserves are what America’s strategic future is all about. The whole land covered under the red, white and blue flag owns enough recoverable oil and gas that can just nullify the quantity of reserves Middle East has been occupying since a long time.
 A study by the Rand Corporation estimates the sedimentary rock in the corner where Utah borders Colorado and Wyoming holds about 800 billion barrels. That's three times the sizes of the two largest reserves in the world. Venezuela’s which account to 297 billion barrels and Saudi Arabia's oil reserves which are the second largest claimed in the world, estimated to be 267 billion barrels. Thus, America’s oil shale reserves are enormous, totaling at least 1.5 trillion barrels of oil. That’s five times the reserves of Venezuela and Saudi Arabia! And yet, no one is producing commercial quantities of oil from these vast deposits. If oil shale were to become commercially profitable, its impact on the ambient regions would be immense. Oil companies and the U.S. government are currently taking a slow and cautious approach to oil shale, but the development process would get accelerated if global factors made it politically and economically advantageous to put more money and energy into accessing this resource.
 A R C T I C                    
This is not just it! The new oil race is predicted to be led by the riches present in the Arctic which include new basins and reservoirs buried several thousand meters under the seabed or mountain ranges containing viscous oil and sour gas. It is believed that 25% of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas reserves lie beneath the Arctic Ocean which, in the recent times, has become economically accessible. The future of the Arctic will be less white wilderness, more black gold.


The first assessment of oil and gas resources in north of the Arctic Circle, carried out by American geologists, reveals that underneath the ice, the region may contain as much as a fifth of the world's undiscovered yet recoverable oil and natural gas reserves. This includes 90 billion barrels of oil, enough to supply the world for three years at current consumption rates, or to supply America for 12, and 1,670 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas, which is equal to about a third of the world's known gas reserves. West Siberian Basin (651 tcf), the East Barents Basin(318 tcf) and Arctic Alaska(221 tcf) are speculated to be the most prolific areas for gas while Arctic Alaska (30 BBOE), the Amerasia Basin(9.7 BBOE) and the East Greenland Rift(8.9 BBOE) are expected to yield the biggest reserves of oil.
N E W  Z E A L A N D
Subsequently, an emerging oil giant is New Zealand which is recognized as one of the few remaining high potential untapped oil and gas frontiers in the world. New Zealand’s oil sector is at crossroads. Most of the exploration revolves around the Taranaki Basin, which is the limelight of the world’s most prominent international explorers.  With reported proven oil reserves of 528 million barrels and proven gas reserves of 6.9 trillion cubic feet discovered, companies are firmly positioned with their fertile hunting grounds in Taranaki. The East Coast Basin exhibits dramatic oil and gas seeps, and exploration data reveals numerous multi-zone conventional targets at depths between 250 to 2000 meters. The oil-rich fractured shale source-rock formations in the East Coast Basin are a widespread exploration target with major unconventional oil and gas potential. The full potential of the basins still to be ascertained could be from anywhere between 600-1200 million barrels. New Zealand is a place worth to watch out for when it comes to oil prospects.
P A K I S T A N

                    
 Finally, our homeland Pakistan is not out of this new oil race either. Our offshore is surrounded by oil rich fields like Mumbai High, Iranian & Middle East Oil fields. Also a major portion of Baluchistan too remains unexplored. According to the USGS report, Pakistan has tremendous reserves of Gas Hydrates. Yet, Pakistan produces about 60,000 barrels of oil per day which only meets approximately one sixth of the country’s current oil requirement. The prevailing crises of Energy in Pakistan can be minimized or can even get eliminated if natural resources of the country are used efficiently.

Coal too is keeping pace with consumer electric demand and EIA has stated that coal will continue to feed 45-50% of the world’s total power generation in 2025. Pakistan is enriched with hundreds of God gifted reserves especially in Sindh and Balochistan, one of which is Thar Coal reserves. Thar is the 9th largest desert of the world with 7th largest coal reserves having 175 billion tons. The drawback adhered to the coal’s usage as a power generation source is that it is a dirty fuel. This defect can be clearly whitewashed by the implementation of Clean Coal Technology that aims to commercialize the processes to help control SOx and NOx from power plant emission. The staggering fact is that if all the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia & Iran are put together they are still way lesser than 50 billion ton of oil which is equivalent to the 175 billion tons of coal reserves present at Thar. The quantity is also equivalent to over 2000 TCF of gas which is 42 times greater than the total gas reserves that have been discovered in Pakistan.

                   Nobody really knows when the last drop of oil, lump of coal or cubic foot of natural gas will be collected from the Earth but one thing is certain, that this supposition is far distant from the present scenario. The foregone conclusion is that the earth is not short of the natural resources such as crude oil and natural gas. As a matter of fact, it is the very earth which has accommodated too much the quantity of those fossil fuels that extraction of them has become an arduous job. There is still a bright future ahead of the prevailing major resources which lies in the Unconventional reservoirs and Coal resources, both driven by technology advancement and economic parameters. All of it will depend on how well we manage our energy demands. Hence, efficient technological development in the respective field is the only rescue from a future deadlock.



                                                                                                 WRITTEN BY: M. TAHA JAVAID
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